Health care of Kyrgyzstan
Zdravoohraneniye Kyrgyzstana

ISSN 1694-8068 (Print)

ISSN 1694-805X (Online)

Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Kyrgyzstan and mortality

Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Kyrgyzstan and mortality
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Abstract

Since the end of 2020, work has begun around the world to vaccinate people against COVID-19. But due to the insufficient supply of vaccines in resource-limited countries, data on COVID-19 in the country were analyzed to determine effective vaccination strategies. Through age-dependant SIERS deterministic model, the paper compares four hypothetical age-dependant vaccination strategies and their impact on the epidemic in Kyrgyzstan. So, by March 2022, public health can reduce cases of COVID-19 and the resulting mortality, in the case of increased attention to high-risk groups (over 50 years old) and moderate vaccination of people with a high incidence (20-49 years old). It should also be noted the importance of combining vaccination with non-pharmaceutical interventions (wearing masks and distancing), which will lead to a further decrease in morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 and indirectly reduce mortality from other causes too. Thus, if this scenario is observed, the mortality rate in the country can be reduced from 27,000 to 16,000 over the simulation period (March 2020 - March 2022). According to the simulation results, vaccination is an effective measure of protection against COVID-19, but the effect is increased when combined with vaccination of non-pharmaceutical interventions. When focusing on the high-risk group, morbidity decreases, then mortality. And thus, the burden on the health care system is reduced. But to achieve the effect of crowd control of the next peak in morbidity and mortality, it is necessary to increase coverage with high morbidity (20-49 years).

About the authors

Молдокматова Айнура Омургазиевна, Оксфордский университет,младший научный сотрудник, Магистр науки по социальныи исследованиям (Эдинбургский университет) и магистр науки по международному здравоохранению и тропической медицине(Оксфордский университет, Оксфорд, Великобритания;
Дооронбекова Айжан Жакыпбековна, директор ОФ «Институт социального развития», Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Жумалиева Чынаркул Койчумановна, исследователь, врач- эпидемиолог ОФ «Институт социального развития, Научно-производственное объединение «Профилактическая медицина» МЗ КР, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Мукамбетов Айбек Сагынбекович, к. м. н., Фонд Сороса в Кыргызской Республике, директор программы «Общественное здравоохранение», Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Кубатова Айсулуу Кубатовна, исследователь ОФ «Институт социального развития, аспирант Научно-производственного объединения «Профилактическая медицина» МЗ КР, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Усенбаев Нурболот Толошевич, к.м.н., заместитель директора,РЦКиОИ, МЗ КР, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Осмонов Аман Жумабекович, ведущий специалист, отдел Общественного здравоохранения, МЗ КР, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Ибрагимов Шамиль Марсович, магистр государственного управления (Гарвардский университет, Школа управления им. Кеннеди), исполнительный директор Фонда Сороса в Кыргызской Республике, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Абдылдаев Талант Ормокеевич, консультант, Медицинская ассоциация в Кыргызской Республике, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Кутманова Айнура Зарылбековна, д.м.н., профессор, заведующая кафедрой инфекционных болезней Международной высшей школы медицины, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Лузия Фрейтас, консультант, Оксфордский университет, медицинский факультет Нуффилда, Оксфорд, Великобритания;
Лиза Джейн Уайт, профессор эпидемиологии и моделирования, Оксфордский университет, руководитель Оксфордской группы моделирования глобального здоровья (Oxford Modelling of Global health Group ),заместитель директора отдела аспирантуры Bid Data Institute при департаменте “Nuffield Department of Medicine” университета
Оксфорд, директор международного консорциума по моделированию СOVID19(COVID-19 Modelling Consortium), директор магистерской программы по глобальному моделированию здравоохранения, университет Оксфорда.

Moldokmatova Ainura Omurgazievna, University of Oxford, Junior Research Fellow, Master of Science in Social Research (University of Edinburgh) and Master of Science in International Health and Tropical Medicine (University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;
Dooronbekova Aizhan Zhakypbekovna, Director of the Public Foundation “Institute for Social Development”, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Zhumalieva Chynarkul Koichumanovna, researcher of the PF “Institute of Social Development, epidemiologist of the Scientific and production Centre for preventive medicine, Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Mukambetov Aibek Sagynbekovich, Ph.D., Soros Foundation in the Kyrgyz Republic, Director of the Public Health Program, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Kubatova Aisuluu Kubatovna, researcher of the Public Foundation “Institute of Social Development, PhD student of the Scientific and production Centre for preventive medicine, Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Usenbaev Nurbolot Toloshevich, Ph.D., Deputy Director, Republican Center for Quarantine and Especially Dangerous Infections, Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Osmonov Aman Zhumabekovich, Leading Specialist, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Ibragimov Shamil Marsovich, Master of Public Administration (Harvard University, Kennedy School of Management), Executive Director of the Soros Foundation in the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Abdyldaev Talant Ormokeevich, consultant, Medical Association in the Kyrgyz Republic, Kyrgyzstan. Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Kutmanova Ainura Zarylbekovna, PhD, DSc, Professor, Head of the Department of Infectious Diseases, International High School of Medicine, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Luzia Freitas, Consultant, University of Oxford, Nuffield School of Medicine, Oxford, UK;

Lisa Jane White, Professor of Epidemiology and Modeling, University of Oxford, Head of the Oxford Modeling of Global Health Group, Deputy Director of the Graduate School of the Bid Data Institute at the Nuffield School of Medicine, University of Oxford, Director of the International Modeling Consortium COVID19 (COVID-19 Modeling Consortium), Director of the Master's Program in Global Health Modeling, University of Oxford

Молдокматова Айнура Өмүргазиевна, Оксфорд университети, кенже илимий кызматкер, социалдык изилдөөлөр боюнча илим магистри (Эдинбург университети) жана эл аралык ден соолук жана тропикалык медицина боюнча илим магистри (Оксфорд университети, Оксфорд, Улуу Британия;

Дооронбекова Айжан Жакыпбековна, «Социалдык өнүктүрүү институту» коомдук фондунун директору, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Жумалиева Чынаркүл Койчумановна, илимий кызматкер- «Социалдык өнүктүрүү институту, врач-эпидемиолог - «Алдын алуучу медицина» илимий-өндүрүштүк бирикмеси, Кыргыз Республикасынын Саламаттыкты сактоо  министрлиги, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Мукамбетов Айбек Сагынбекович, медицина илимдеринин кандидаты, Кыргыз Республикасындагы Сорос Фондунун Коомдук саламаттыкты сактоо программасынын директору, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Кубатова Айсулуу Кубатовна, «Социалдык өнүктүрүү институту» коомдук фондунун илимий кызматкери, «Алдын алуучу медицина» илимий-өндүрүштүк бирикмесинин аспиранты, Кыргыз Республикасынын Саламаттыкты сактоо  министрлиги, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Усенбаев Нурболот Төлөшевич, ф.и.к., директордун орун басары, Кыргыз Республикасынын Саламаттыкты сактоо  министрлиги, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Осмонов Аман Жумабекович, Кыргыз Республикасынын Кыргыз Республикасынын Саламаттыкты сактоо министрлиги, Коомдук саламаттыкты сактоо бөлүмүнүн башкы адиси, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Ибрагимов Шамиль Марсович, мамлекеттик башкаруу магистри (Гарвард университети, Кеннеди атындагы Менеджмент мектеби), Сорос Фондунун Кыргыз Республикасындагы Аткаруучу директору, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Абдылдаев Талант Ормокеевич, Кыргыз Республикасындагы медициналык бирикменин консультанты, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы

Кутманова Айнура Зарылбековна, медицина илимдеринин кандидаты, медицина илимдеринин доктору, профессор, Эл аралык медицина жогорку мектебинин инфекциялык оорулар кафедрасынын башчысы, Бишкек, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Лузия Фрейтас, Оксфорд университетинин консультанты, Нуффилд медицина мектеби, Оксфорд, Улуу Британия;

Лиза Джейн Уайт, Оксфорд университетинин эпидемиология жана моделдөө боюнча профессору, Глобалдык ден соолук тобунун Оксфорд моделдөө тобунун жетекчиси, Оксфорд университетинин Нуффилд Медицина департаментинин алдындагы Bid Data институтунун Жогорку мектебинин директорунун орун басары, Эл аралык Моделдөө консорциуму COVID19 (COVID-19 моделдөө консорциуму), Оксфорд университетинин Глобалдык ден соолукту моделдөө боюнча магистрдик программасынын директору.

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9. Meyerowitz-Katz G, Merone L. A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection fatality rates. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Dec 1;101:138–48.

10. Levin AT, Hanage WP, Owusu-Boaitey N, Cochran KB, Walsh SP, Meyerowitz-Katz G. Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications. Eur J Epidemiol 2020 3512 [Internet]. 2020 Dec 8 [cited 2021 Aug 10];35(12):1123–38. Available from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1

11. Omori R, Matsuyama R, Nakata Y. The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age. Sci Reports 2020 101 [Internet]. 2020 Oct 6 [cited 2021 Aug 10];10(1):1–9. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73777-8

12. Davies NG, Klepac P, Liu Y, Prem K, Jit M, Eggo RM. Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. Nat Med 2020 268 [Internet]. 2020 Jun 16 [cited 2021 Aug 10];26(8):1205–11. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0962-9

13.Noh EB, Nam H-K, Lee H. Which Group Should be Vaccinated First?: A Systematic Review. Infect Chemother [Internet]. 2021 Jun 1 [cited 2021 Aug 11];53(2):261. Available from: /pmc/articles/PMC8258295/

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15. Galvani A, Moghadas S, Schneider E. Deaths & Hospitalizations Averted by Rapid US Vaccination Rollout | Commonwealth Fund [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2021/jul/deaths-and-hospitalizations-averted-rapid-us-vaccination-rollout

16.  Moghadas SM, Vilches TN, Zhang K, Wells CR, Shoukat A, Singer BH, et al. The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. medRxiv [Internet]. 2020 Nov 30 [cited 2021 Aug 10]; Available from: /pmc/articles/PMC7709178/

17. Pritchard E, Matthews PC, Stoesser N, Eyre DW, Gethings O, Vihta K-D, et al. Impact of vaccination on new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United Kingdom. Nat Med 2021 [Internet]. 2021 Jun 9 [cited 2021 Aug 10];1–9. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01410-w

18. Leshem E, Wilder-Smith A. COVID-19 vaccine impact in Israel and a way out of the pandemic. Lancet [Internet]. 2021 May 15 [cited 2021 Aug 11];397(10287):1783–5. Available from: http://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140673621010187/fulltext

19. Foy BH, Wahl B, Mehta K, Shet A, Menon GI, Britto C. Comparing COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies in India: A mathematical modelling study. Int J Infect Dis. 2021 Feb 1;103:431–8.

20. Imperial College London. Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/82822

21. Pearson CAB, Bozzani F, Procter SR, Davies NG, Huda M, Jensen HT, et al. COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: a modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Jun 10 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.02.24.21252338. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.24.21252338v2

22. Buhat CAH, Lutero DS, Olave YH, Quindala KM, Recreo MGP, Talabis DAS, et al. Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Philippines. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Feb 18 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.02.12.21251640. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.12.21251640v1

23. II YB, Ouattara A, Torreele E, Okonta C. How to ensure a needs-driven and community-centred vaccination strategy for COVID-19 in Africa. BMJ Glob Heal [Internet]. 2021 Feb 1 [cited 2021 Aug 11];6(2):e005306. Available from: https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/2/e005306

24. Siedner MJ, Alba C, Fitzmaurice KP, Gilbert RF, Scott JA, Shebl FM, et al. Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in low- and middle-income countries. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 May 2 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.04.28.21256237. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.28.21256237v1

25. CoMo Consortium. The COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Dec 7]. Available from: https://como.bmj.com/

26.  COVID-19 Modelling Consortium. COMO COVID-19 Application [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: https://comomodel.net/

27.  Aguas R, Hupert N, Shretta R, Celhay O, Moldokmatova A, Arifi F, et al. COVID-19 Pandemic Modelling in Context: Uniting People and Technology Across Nations Border Malaria View project Global Health Decisions View project. BMJ Pre-print version  [Internet]. 2020 Aug; Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342747645

28. Prem K, Cook AR, Jit M. Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data. PLoS Comput Biol [Internet]. 2017 Sep 1 [cited 2020 Aug 3];13(9):e1005697. Available from: http://www.dhsprogram.com/http://data.worldbank.org/,UIS.Stathttp://data.uis.unesco.org/,http://unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm,InternationalLaborOrganizationhttp://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/lang-en/index.htm.

29.  UN. World Population Prospects: Population Division [Internet]. 2019 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

30. NSTKG. National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from: http://www.stat.kg/en/

31. MoH KR. Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Kyrgyz Republic. COVID-19 statistics. [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: http://med.kg/index.php/en/

32. Google. COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 6]. Available from: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

33. Republican Centre of Immuno-Prophylactics. Kyrgyzstan. COVID-19 vaccination plan. 2021.

34. Kaktus media. Правда о количестве умерших кыргызстанцев, о которой молчат власти [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 16]. Available from: https://kaktus.media/doc/433693_pravda_o_kolichestve_ymershih_kyrgyzstancev_o_kotoroy_molchat_vlasti.html

35. Azattyk. Самая высокая смертность за последние 10 лет/ The highest mortality rate in the last 10 years. [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 16]. Available from: https://rus.azattyk.org/a/31067213.html

36. Padma T V. COVID vaccines to reach poorest countries in 2023 — despite recent pledges. Nature. 2021 Jul 15;595(7867):342–3.

1.        COVAX. COVAX explained | Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Jul 15]. Available from: https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/covax-explained

2.        Sputnik. В Кыргызстан привезли вакцину AstraZeneca [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 9]. Available from: https://ru.sputnik.kg/society/20210730/1053382278/kyrgyzstan-vaktsina-koronavirus-astrazeneca.html

3.        Azattyk. Вакцинация от COVID-19: лед тронулся  [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 9]. Available from: https://rus.azattyk.org/a/31355820.html

4.        Azattyk. В Бишкек привезли 80 тыс доз вакцины “Спутник V”. Видео [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 9]. Available from: https://ru.sputnik.kg/society/20210617/1052902070/kyrgyzstan-vaktsina-sputnik-v-dostavka.html

5.        Our World in Data. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 9]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

6.        Akipress. COVID-19 в Кыргызстане. АКИpress/ COVID-19 in Kyrgyzstan. AKIpress. [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://akipress.org/dolbor/covid-19/graph-kg/?hl=ru&from=covid-19&from=left

7.        Bishkek 24. В Бишкеке осталось всего 136 коек для зараженных коронависом/ Only 136 surge beds are available now in Bishkek for COVID patients [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://bishkek24.kg/obshhestvo/v-bishkeke-ostalos-vsego-136-koek-dlya-zarazhennyh-koronavirusom/

8.        Kloop. Третья волна COVID-19. В 10 стационарах Бишкека уже нет свободных коек / Third COVID-19 wave. Now there are no available surge beds in 10 hospitals in Bishkek [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://kloop.kg/blog/2021/06/30/tretya-volna-covid-19-v-10-statsionarah-bishkeka-uzhe-net-svobodnyh-koek/

9.        Meyerowitz-Katz G, Merone L. A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection fatality rates. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Dec 1;101:138–48.

10.      Levin AT, Hanage WP, Owusu-Boaitey N, Cochran KB, Walsh SP, Meyerowitz-Katz G. Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications. Eur J Epidemiol 2020 3512 [Internet]. 2020 Dec 8 [cited 2021 Aug 10];35(12):1123–38. Available from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1

11.      Omori R, Matsuyama R, Nakata Y. The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age. Sci Reports 2020 101 [Internet]. 2020 Oct 6 [cited 2021 Aug 10];10(1):1–9. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73777-8

12.      Davies NG, Klepac P, Liu Y, Prem K, Jit M, Eggo RM. Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. Nat Med 2020 268 [Internet]. 2020 Jun 16 [cited 2021 Aug 10];26(8):1205–11. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0962-9

13.      Noh EB, Nam H-K, Lee H. Which Group Should be Vaccinated First?: A Systematic Review. Infect Chemother [Internet]. 2021 Jun 1 [cited 2021 Aug 11];53(2):261. Available from: /pmc/articles/PMC8258295/

14.      Reuters. United Arab Emirates: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-arab-emirates/

15.      Galvani A, Moghadas S, Schneider E. Deaths & Hospitalizations Averted by Rapid US Vaccination Rollout | Commonwealth Fund [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2021/jul/deaths-and-hospitalizations-averted-rapid-us-vaccination-rollout

16.      Moghadas SM, Vilches TN, Zhang K, Wells CR, Shoukat A, Singer BH, et al. The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. medRxiv [Internet]. 2020 Nov 30 [cited 2021 Aug 10]; Available from: /pmc/articles/PMC7709178/

17.      Pritchard E, Matthews PC, Stoesser N, Eyre DW, Gethings O, Vihta K-D, et al. Impact of vaccination on new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United Kingdom. Nat Med 2021 [Internet]. 2021 Jun 9 [cited 2021 Aug 10];1–9. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01410-w

18.      Leshem E, Wilder-Smith A. COVID-19 vaccine impact in Israel and a way out of the pandemic. Lancet [Internet]. 2021 May 15 [cited 2021 Aug 11];397(10287):1783–5. Available from: http://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140673621010187/fulltext

19.      Foy BH, Wahl B, Mehta K, Shet A, Menon GI, Britto C. Comparing COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies in India: A mathematical modelling study. Int J Infect Dis. 2021 Feb 1;103:431–8.

20.      Imperial College London. Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/82822

21.      Pearson CAB, Bozzani F, Procter SR, Davies NG, Huda M, Jensen HT, et al. COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: a modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Jun 10 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.02.24.21252338. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.24.21252338v2

22.      Buhat CAH, Lutero DS, Olave YH, Quindala KM, Recreo MGP, Talabis DAS, et al. Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Philippines. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Feb 18 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.02.12.21251640. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.12.21251640v1

23.      II YB, Ouattara A, Torreele E, Okonta C. How to ensure a needs-driven and community-centred vaccination strategy for COVID-19 in Africa. BMJ Glob Heal [Internet]. 2021 Feb 1 [cited 2021 Aug 11];6(2):e005306. Available from: https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/2/e005306

24.      Siedner MJ, Alba C, Fitzmaurice KP, Gilbert RF, Scott JA, Shebl FM, et al. Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in low- and middle-income countries. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 May 2 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.04.28.21256237. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.28.21256237v1

25.      CoMo Consortium. The COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Dec 7]. Available from: https://como.bmj.com/

26.      COVID-19 Modelling Consortium. COMO COVID-19 Application [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: https://comomodel.net/

27.      Aguas R, Hupert N, Shretta R, Celhay O, Moldokmatova A, Arifi F, et al. COVID-19 Pandemic Modelling in Context: Uniting People and Technology Across Nations Border Malaria View project Global Health Decisions View project. BMJ Pre-print version  [Internet]. 2020 Aug; Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342747645

28.      Prem K, Cook AR, Jit M. Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data. PLoS Comput Biol [Internet]. 2017 Sep 1 [cited 2020 Aug 3];13(9):e1005697. Available from: http://www.dhsprogram.com/http://data.worldbank.org/,UIS.Stathttp://data.uis.unesco.org/,http://unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm,InternationalLaborOrganizationhttp://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/lang-en/index.htm.

29.      UN. World Population Prospects: Population Division [Internet]. 2019 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

30.      NSTKG. National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from: http://www.stat.kg/en/

31.      MoH KR. Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Kyrgyz Republic. COVID-19 statistics. [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: http://med.kg/index.php/en/

32.      Google. COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 6]. Available from: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

33.      Republican Centre of Immuno-Prophylactics. Kyrgyzstan. COVID-19 vaccination plan. 2021.

34.      Kaktus media. Правда о количестве умерших кыргызстанцев, о которой молчат власти [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 16]. Available from: https://kaktus.media/doc/433693_pravda_o_kolichestve_ymershih_kyrgyzstancev_o_kotoroy_molchat_vlasti.html

35.      Azattyk. Самая высокая смертность за последние 10 лет/ The highest mortality rate in the last 10 years. [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 16]. Available from: https://rus.azattyk.org/a/31067213.html

36.      Padma T V. COVID vaccines to reach poorest countries in 2023 — despite recent pledges. Nature. 2021 Jul 15;595(7867):342–3.

Для цитирования

Молдокматова А.О., Дооронбекова А.Ж., Жумалиева Ч. К., Мукамбетов А. С.,Кубатова А.К., Усенбаев Н. Т., Осмонов А.Ж., Ибрагимов Ш.М., Абдылдаев Т.О., Luzia Freitas, Lisa J White. Математическое моделирование стратегий вакцинации COVID-19 в Кыргызстане и смертность. Здравоохранение Кыргызстана 2021,
№ 4, с. 24-33. 

https://doi.org/10.51350/zdravkg2021124224

For citation

Moldokmatova A.O.,Dooronbekova A.Z.,Zhumalieva C.K.,Mukambetov A.S., Kubatova A.K., Usenbayev N.T.,
Osmonov A.J., Ibragimov S.M., Abdyldaev T.O., Luzia Freitas, Lisa J White. Mathematical modelling of COVID-19
vaccination strategies in Kyrgyzstan and mortality. Healthcare of Kyrgyzstan 2021,No. 4, pp. 24-33.

https://doi.org/10.51350/zdravkg2021124224

Цитата үчүн

Молдокматова А.О., Дооронбекова А.Ж., Жумалиева Ч. К., Мукамбетов А. С.,Кубатова А.К., Усенбаев Н. Т., Осмонов А.Ж., Ибрагимов Ш.М., Абдылдаев Т.О., Фрейтас Лузия,  Уайт Джейн Уайт. Кыргызстандагы COVID-19 вакцинациясынын стратегияларын математикалык моделдөө жана анын өлүм.  Кыргызстандын Cаламаттык Cактоо 2021, № 4, б. 24-33.

https://doi.org/.10.51350/zdravkg2021124224

Authors Moldokmatova A.O., Dooronbekova A.Z., Zhumalieva C.K, Mukambetov A.S., Kubatova A.K., Usenbaev N.T., Osmonov A.J., Ibragimov S.M., Abdyldaev T.O., Kutmanova A.Z., Luzia Freitas, Lisa Jane White
Link doi.org https://dx.doi.org/10.51350/zdravkg2021124224224
Pages 24-33
Keywords COVID-19, Modelling, Vaccination, Kyrgyz Republic
Russian
Об авторах

Молдокматова Айнура Омургазиевна, Оксфордский университет,младший научный сотрудник, Магистр науки по социальныи исследованиям (Эдинбургский университет) и магистр науки по международному здравоохранению и тропической медицине(Оксфордский университет, Оксфорд, Великобритания;
Дооронбекова Айжан Жакыпбековна, директор ОФ «Институт социального развития», Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Жумалиева Чынаркул Койчумановна, исследователь, врач- эпидемиолог ОФ «Институт социального развития, Научно-производственное объединение «Профилактическая медицина» МЗ КР, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Мукамбетов Айбек Сагынбекович, к. м. н., Фонд Сороса в Кыргызской Республике, директор программы «Общественное здравоохранение», Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Кубатова Айсулуу Кубатовна, исследователь ОФ «Институт социального развития, аспирант Научно-производственного объединения «Профилактическая медицина» МЗ КР, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Усенбаев Нурболот Толошевич, к.м.н., заместитель директора,РЦКиОИ, МЗ КР, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Осмонов Аман Жумабекович, ведущий специалист, отдел Общественного здравоохранения, МЗ КР, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Ибрагимов Шамиль Марсович, магистр государственного управления (Гарвардский университет, Школа управления им. Кеннеди), исполнительный директор Фонда Сороса в Кыргызской Республике, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Абдылдаев Талант Ормокеевич, консультант, Медицинская ассоциация в Кыргызской Республике, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Кутманова Айнура Зарылбековна, д.м.н., профессор, заведующая кафедрой инфекционных болезней Международной высшей школы медицины, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика;
Лузия Фрейтас, консультант, Оксфордский университет, медицинский факультет Нуффилда, Оксфорд, Великобритания;
Лиза Джейн Уайт, профессор эпидемиологии и моделирования, Оксфордский университет, руководитель Оксфордской группы моделирования глобального здоровья (Oxford Modelling of Global health Group ),заместитель директора отдела аспирантуры Bid Data Institute при департаменте “Nuffield Department of Medicine” университета
Оксфорд, директор международного консорциума по моделированию СOVID19(COVID-19 Modelling Consortium), директор магистерской программы по глобальному моделированию здравоохранения, университет Оксфорда.

Полный текст

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Список литературы

1. COVAX. COVAX explained | Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Jul 15]. Available from: https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/covax-explained

2.Sputnik. В Кыргызстан привезли вакцину AstraZeneca [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 9]. Available from: https://ru.sputnik.kg/society/20210730/1053382278/kyrgyzstan-vaktsina-koronavirus-astrazeneca.html

3. Azattyk. Вакцинация от COVID-19: лед тронулся  [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 9]. Available from: https://rus.azattyk.org/a/31355820.html

4.  Azattyk. В Бишкек привезли 80 тыс доз вакцины “Спутник V”. Видео [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 9]. Available from: https://ru.sputnik.kg/society/20210617/1052902070/kyrgyzstan-vaktsina-sputnik-v-dostavka.html

5. Our World in Data. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 9]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

6.  Akipress. COVID-19 в Кыргызстане. АКИpress/ COVID-19 in Kyrgyzstan. AKIpress. [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://akipress.org/dolbor/covid-19/graph-kg/?hl=ru&from=covid-19&from=left

7. Bishkek 24. В Бишкеке осталось всего 136 коек для зараженных коронависом/ Only 136 surge beds are available now in Bishkek for COVID patients [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://bishkek24.kg/obshhestvo/v-bishkeke-ostalos-vsego-136-koek-dlya-zarazhennyh-koronavirusom/

8. Kloop. Третья волна COVID-19. В 10 стационарах Бишкека уже нет свободных коек / Third COVID-19 wave. Now there are no available surge beds in 10 hospitals in Bishkek [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://kloop.kg/blog/2021/06/30/tretya-volna-covid-19-v-10-statsionarah-bishkeka-uzhe-net-svobodnyh-koek/

9. Meyerowitz-Katz G, Merone L. A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection fatality rates. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Dec 1;101:138–48.

10. Levin AT, Hanage WP, Owusu-Boaitey N, Cochran KB, Walsh SP, Meyerowitz-Katz G. Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications. Eur J Epidemiol 2020 3512 [Internet]. 2020 Dec 8 [cited 2021 Aug 10];35(12):1123–38. Available from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1

11. Omori R, Matsuyama R, Nakata Y. The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age. Sci Reports 2020 101 [Internet]. 2020 Oct 6 [cited 2021 Aug 10];10(1):1–9. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73777-8

12. Davies NG, Klepac P, Liu Y, Prem K, Jit M, Eggo RM. Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. Nat Med 2020 268 [Internet]. 2020 Jun 16 [cited 2021 Aug 10];26(8):1205–11. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0962-9

13. Noh EB, Nam H-K, Lee H. Which Group Should be Vaccinated First?: A Systematic Review. Infect Chemother [Internet]. 2021 Jun 1 [cited 2021 Aug 11];53(2):261. Available from: /pmc/articles/PMC8258295/

14. Reuters. United Arab Emirates: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-arab-emirates/

15. Galvani A, Moghadas S, Schneider E. Deaths & Hospitalizations Averted by Rapid US Vaccination Rollout | Commonwealth Fund [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2021/jul/deaths-and-hospitalizations-averted-rapid-us-vaccination-rollout

16. Moghadas SM, Vilches TN, Zhang K, Wells CR, Shoukat A, Singer BH, et al. The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. medRxiv [Internet]. 2020 Nov 30 [cited 2021 Aug 10]; Available from: /pmc/articles/PMC7709178/

17. Pritchard E, Matthews PC, Stoesser N, Eyre DW, Gethings O, Vihta K-D, et al. Impact of vaccination on new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United Kingdom. Nat Med 2021 [Internet]. 2021 Jun 9 [cited 2021 Aug 10];1–9. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01410-w

18. Leshem E, Wilder-Smith A. COVID-19 vaccine impact in Israel and a way out of the pandemic. Lancet [Internet]. 2021 May 15 [cited 2021 Aug 11];397(10287):1783–5. Available from: http://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140673621010187/fulltext

19. Foy BH, Wahl B, Mehta K, Shet A, Menon GI, Britto C. Comparing COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies in India: A mathematical modelling study. Int J Infect Dis. 2021 Feb 1;103:431–8.

20. Imperial College London. Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/82822

21. Pearson CAB, Bozzani F, Procter SR, Davies NG, Huda M, Jensen HT, et al. COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: a modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Jun 10 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.02.24.21252338. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.24.21252338v2

22. Buhat CAH, Lutero DS, Olave YH, Quindala KM, Recreo MGP, Talabis DAS, et al. Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Philippines. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Feb 18 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.02.12.21251640. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.12.21251640v1

23.  II YB, Ouattara A, Torreele E, Okonta C. How to ensure a needs-driven and community-centred vaccination strategy for COVID-19 in Africa. BMJ Glob Heal [Internet]. 2021 Feb 1 [cited 2021 Aug 11];6(2):e005306. Available from: https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/2/e005306

24. Siedner MJ, Alba C, Fitzmaurice KP, Gilbert RF, Scott JA, Shebl FM, et al. Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in low- and middle-income countries. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 May 2 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.04.28.21256237. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.28.21256237v1

25. CoMo Consortium. The COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Dec 7]. Available from: https://como.bmj.com/

26.COVID-19 Modelling Consortium. COMO COVID-19 Application [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: https://comomodel.net/

27. Aguas R, Hupert N, Shretta R, Celhay O, Moldokmatova A, Arifi F, et al. COVID-19 Pandemic Modelling in Context: Uniting People and Technology Across Nations Border Malaria View project Global Health Decisions View project. BMJ Pre-print version  [Internet]. 2020 Aug; Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342747645

28. Prem K, Cook AR, Jit M. Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data. PLoS Comput Biol [Internet]. 2017 Sep 1 [cited 2020 Aug 3];13(9):e1005697. Available from: http://www.dhsprogram.com/http://data.worldbank.org/,UIS.Stathttp://data.uis.unesco.org/,http://unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm,InternationalLaborOrganizationhttp://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/lang-en/index.htm.

29. UN. World Population Prospects: Population Division [Internet]. 2019 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

30. NSTKG. National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from: http://www.stat.kg/en/

31. MoH KR. Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Kyrgyz Republic. COVID-19 statistics. [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: http://med.kg/index.php/en/

32. Google. COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 6]. Available from: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

33. Republican Centre of Immuno-Prophylactics. Kyrgyzstan. COVID-19 vaccination plan. 2021.

34. Kaktus media. Правда о количестве умерших кыргызстанцев, о которой молчат власти [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 16]. Available from: https://kaktus.media/doc/433693_pravda_o_kolichestve_ymershih_kyrgyzstancev_o_kotoroy_molchat_vlasti.html

35.  Azattyk. Самая высокая смертность за последние 10 лет/ The highest mortality rate in the last 10 years. [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 16]. Available from: https://rus.azattyk.org/a/31067213.html

36. Padma T V. COVID vaccines to reach poorest countries in 2023 — despite recent pledges. Nature. 2021 Jul 15;595(7867):342–3.

Для цитирования

Молдокматова А.О., Дооронбекова А.Ж., Жумалиева Ч. К., Мукамбетов А. С.,Кубатова А.К., Усенбаев Н. Т., Осмонов А.Ж., Ибрагимов Ш.М., Абдылдаев Т.О., Luzia Freitas, Lisa J White. Математическое моделирование стратегий вакцинации COVID-19 в Кыргызстане и смертность. Здравоохранение Кыргызстана 2021,
№ 4, с. 24-33. 

https://doi.org/10.51350/zdravkg2021124224

English
About authors

Moldokmatova Ainura Omurgazievna, University of Oxford, Junior Research Fellow, Master of Science in Social Research (University of Edinburgh) and Master of Science in International Health and Tropical Medicine (University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;
Dooronbekova Aizhan Zhakypbekovna, Director of the Public Foundation “Institute for Social Development”, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Zhumalieva Chynarkul Koichumanovna, researcher of the PF “Institute of Social Development, epidemiologist of the Scientific and production Centre for preventive medicine, Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Mukambetov Aibek Sagynbekovich, Ph.D., Soros Foundation in the Kyrgyz Republic, Director of the Public Health Program, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Kubatova Aisuluu Kubatovna, researcher of the Public Foundation “Institute of Social Development, PhD student of the Scientific and production Centre for preventive medicine, Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Usenbaev Nurbolot Toloshevich, Ph.D., Deputy Director, Republican Center for Quarantine and Especially Dangerous Infections, Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Osmonov Aman Zhumabekovich, Leading Specialist, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Ibragimov Shamil Marsovich, Master of Public Administration (Harvard University, Kennedy School of Management), Executive Director of the Soros Foundation in the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Abdyldaev Talant Ormokeevich, consultant, Medical Association in the Kyrgyz Republic, Kyrgyzstan. Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Kutmanova Ainura Zarylbekovna, PhD, DSc, Professor, Head of the Department of Infectious Diseases, International High School of Medicine, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic;
Luzia Freitas, Consultant, University of Oxford, Nuffield School of Medicine, Oxford, UK;

Lisa Jane White, Professor of Epidemiology and Modeling, University of Oxford, Head of the Oxford Modeling of Global Health Group, Deputy Director of the Graduate School of the Bid Data Institute at the Nuffield School of Medicine, University of Oxford, Director of the International Modeling Consortium COVID19 (COVID-19 Modeling Consortium), Director of the Master's Program in Global Health Modeling, University of Oxford

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References

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2.  Sputnik. The vaccine AstraZeneca [Internet] was brought to Kyrgyzstan. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 9]. Available from: https://ru.sputnik.kg/society/20210730/1053382278/kyrgyzstan-vaktsina-koronavirus-astrazeneca.html

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9. Meyerowitz-Katz G, Merone L. A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection fatality rates. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Dec 1;101:138–48.

10. Levin AT, Hanage WP, Owusu-Boaitey N, Cochran KB, Walsh SP, Meyerowitz-Katz G. Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications. Eur J Epidemiol 2020 3512 [Internet]. 2020 Dec 8 [cited 2021 Aug 10];35(12):1123–38. Available from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1

11. Omori R, Matsuyama R, Nakata Y. The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age. Sci Reports 2020 101 [Internet]. 2020 Oct 6 [cited 2021 Aug 10];10(1):1–9. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73777-8

12. Davies NG, Klepac P, Liu Y, Prem K, Jit M, Eggo RM. Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. Nat Med 2020 268 [Internet]. 2020 Jun 16 [cited 2021 Aug 10];26(8):1205–11. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0962-9

13.Noh EB, Nam H-K, Lee H. Which Group Should be Vaccinated First?: A Systematic Review. Infect Chemother [Internet]. 2021 Jun 1 [cited 2021 Aug 11];53(2):261. Available from: /pmc/articles/PMC8258295/

14. Reuters. United Arab Emirates: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-arab-emirates/

15. Galvani A, Moghadas S, Schneider E. Deaths & Hospitalizations Averted by Rapid US Vaccination Rollout | Commonwealth Fund [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 10]. Available from: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2021/jul/deaths-and-hospitalizations-averted-rapid-us-vaccination-rollout

16.  Moghadas SM, Vilches TN, Zhang K, Wells CR, Shoukat A, Singer BH, et al. The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. medRxiv [Internet]. 2020 Nov 30 [cited 2021 Aug 10]; Available from: /pmc/articles/PMC7709178/

17. Pritchard E, Matthews PC, Stoesser N, Eyre DW, Gethings O, Vihta K-D, et al. Impact of vaccination on new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United Kingdom. Nat Med 2021 [Internet]. 2021 Jun 9 [cited 2021 Aug 10];1–9. Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01410-w

18. Leshem E, Wilder-Smith A. COVID-19 vaccine impact in Israel and a way out of the pandemic. Lancet [Internet]. 2021 May 15 [cited 2021 Aug 11];397(10287):1783–5. Available from: http://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140673621010187/fulltext

19. Foy BH, Wahl B, Mehta K, Shet A, Menon GI, Britto C. Comparing COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies in India: A mathematical modelling study. Int J Infect Dis. 2021 Feb 1;103:431–8.

20. Imperial College London. Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/82822

21. Pearson CAB, Bozzani F, Procter SR, Davies NG, Huda M, Jensen HT, et al. COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: a modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Jun 10 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.02.24.21252338. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.24.21252338v2

22. Buhat CAH, Lutero DS, Olave YH, Quindala KM, Recreo MGP, Talabis DAS, et al. Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Philippines. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Feb 18 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.02.12.21251640. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.12.21251640v1

23. II YB, Ouattara A, Torreele E, Okonta C. How to ensure a needs-driven and community-centred vaccination strategy for COVID-19 in Africa. BMJ Glob Heal [Internet]. 2021 Feb 1 [cited 2021 Aug 11];6(2):e005306. Available from: https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/2/e005306

24. Siedner MJ, Alba C, Fitzmaurice KP, Gilbert RF, Scott JA, Shebl FM, et al. Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in low- and middle-income countries. medRxiv [Internet]. 2021 May 2 [cited 2021 Aug 11];2021.04.28.21256237. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.28.21256237v1

25. CoMo Consortium. The COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Dec 7]. Available from: https://como.bmj.com/

26.  COVID-19 Modelling Consortium. COMO COVID-19 Application [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: https://comomodel.net/

27.  Aguas R, Hupert N, Shretta R, Celhay O, Moldokmatova A, Arifi F, et al. COVID-19 Pandemic Modelling in Context: Uniting People and Technology Across Nations Border Malaria View project Global Health Decisions View project. BMJ Pre-print version  [Internet]. 2020 Aug; Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342747645

28. Prem K, Cook AR, Jit M. Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data. PLoS Comput Biol [Internet]. 2017 Sep 1 [cited 2020 Aug 3];13(9):e1005697. Available from: http://www.dhsprogram.com/http://data.worldbank.org/,UIS.Stathttp://data.uis.unesco.org/,http://unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm,InternationalLaborOrganizationhttp://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/lang-en/index.htm.

29.  UN. World Population Prospects: Population Division [Internet]. 2019 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

30. NSTKG. National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 3]. Available from: http://www.stat.kg/en/

31. MoH KR. Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Kyrgyz Republic. COVID-19 statistics. [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Aug 11]. Available from: http://med.kg/index.php/en/

32. Google. COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 6]. Available from: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

33. Republican Centre of Immuno-Prophylactics. Kyrgyzstan. COVID-19 vaccination plan. 2021.

34. Kaktus media. Правда о количестве умерших кыргызстанцев, о которой молчат власти [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 16]. Available from: https://kaktus.media/doc/433693_pravda_o_kolichestve_ymershih_kyrgyzstancev_o_kotoroy_molchat_vlasti.html

35. Azattyk. Самая высокая смертность за последние 10 лет/ The highest mortality rate in the last 10 years. [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Aug 16]. Available from: https://rus.azattyk.org/a/31067213.html

36. Padma T V. COVID vaccines to reach poorest countries in 2023 — despite recent pledges. Nature. 2021 Jul 15;595(7867):342–3.

For citation

Moldokmatova A.O.,Dooronbekova A.Z.,Zhumalieva C.K.,Mukambetov A.S., Kubatova A.K., Usenbayev N.T.,
Osmonov A.J., Ibragimov S.M., Abdyldaev T.O., Luzia Freitas, Lisa J White. Mathematical modelling of COVID-19
vaccination strategies in Kyrgyzstan and mortality. Healthcare of Kyrgyzstan 2021,No. 4, pp. 24-33.

https://doi.org/10.51350/zdravkg2021124224

Kyrgyz
Авторлор жөнүндө

Молдокматова Айнура Өмүргазиевна, Оксфорд университети, кенже илимий кызматкер, социалдык изилдөөлөр боюнча илим магистри (Эдинбург университети) жана эл аралык ден соолук жана тропикалык медицина боюнча илим магистри (Оксфорд университети, Оксфорд, Улуу Британия;

Дооронбекова Айжан Жакыпбековна, «Социалдык өнүктүрүү институту» коомдук фондунун директору, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Жумалиева Чынаркүл Койчумановна, илимий кызматкер- «Социалдык өнүктүрүү институту, врач-эпидемиолог - «Алдын алуучу медицина» илимий-өндүрүштүк бирикмеси, Кыргыз Республикасынын Саламаттыкты сактоо  министрлиги, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Мукамбетов Айбек Сагынбекович, медицина илимдеринин кандидаты, Кыргыз Республикасындагы Сорос Фондунун Коомдук саламаттыкты сактоо программасынын директору, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Кубатова Айсулуу Кубатовна, «Социалдык өнүктүрүү институту» коомдук фондунун илимий кызматкери, «Алдын алуучу медицина» илимий-өндүрүштүк бирикмесинин аспиранты, Кыргыз Республикасынын Саламаттыкты сактоо  министрлиги, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Усенбаев Нурболот Төлөшевич, ф.и.к., директордун орун басары, Кыргыз Республикасынын Саламаттыкты сактоо  министрлиги, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Осмонов Аман Жумабекович, Кыргыз Республикасынын Кыргыз Республикасынын Саламаттыкты сактоо министрлиги, Коомдук саламаттыкты сактоо бөлүмүнүн башкы адиси, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Ибрагимов Шамиль Марсович, мамлекеттик башкаруу магистри (Гарвард университети, Кеннеди атындагы Менеджмент мектеби), Сорос Фондунун Кыргыз Республикасындагы Аткаруучу директору, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Абдылдаев Талант Ормокеевич, Кыргыз Республикасындагы медициналык бирикменин консультанты, Бишкек шаары, Кыргыз Республикасы

Кутманова Айнура Зарылбековна, медицина илимдеринин кандидаты, медицина илимдеринин доктору, профессор, Эл аралык медицина жогорку мектебинин инфекциялык оорулар кафедрасынын башчысы, Бишкек, Кыргыз Республикасы;

Лузия Фрейтас, Оксфорд университетинин консультанты, Нуффилд медицина мектеби, Оксфорд, Улуу Британия;

Лиза Джейн Уайт, Оксфорд университетинин эпидемиология жана моделдөө боюнча профессору, Глобалдык ден соолук тобунун Оксфорд моделдөө тобунун жетекчиси, Оксфорд университетинин Нуффилд Медицина департаментинин алдындагы Bid Data институтунун Жогорку мектебинин директорунун орун басары, Эл аралык Моделдөө консорциуму COVID19 (COVID-19 моделдөө консорциуму), Оксфорд университетинин Глобалдык ден соолукту моделдөө боюнча магистрдик программасынын директору.

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Шилтемелер

1.        COVAX. COVAX explained | Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Jul 15]. Available from: https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/covax-explained

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10.      Levin AT, Hanage WP, Owusu-Boaitey N, Cochran KB, Walsh SP, Meyerowitz-Katz G. Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications. Eur J Epidemiol 2020 3512 [Internet]. 2020 Dec 8 [cited 2021 Aug 10];35(12):1123–38. Available from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1

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Цитата үчүн

Молдокматова А.О., Дооронбекова А.Ж., Жумалиева Ч. К., Мукамбетов А. С.,Кубатова А.К., Усенбаев Н. Т., Осмонов А.Ж., Ибрагимов Ш.М., Абдылдаев Т.О., Фрейтас Лузия,  Уайт Джейн Уайт. Кыргызстандагы COVID-19 вакцинациясынын стратегияларын математикалык моделдөө жана анын өлүм.  Кыргызстандын Cаламаттык Cактоо 2021, № 4, б. 24-33.

https://doi.org/.10.51350/zdravkg2021124224

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